Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
