Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on managing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every launch jolts you unexpectedly, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to force Russia to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and improve their protective measures at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
